Web Analytics Trust People (once an Englishman in Philly): Prediction time

Thursday, May 05, 2005

Prediction time

In a messy general election, not helped by an unengaging media inappropriately responding to the different market dynamics of a three party race, any results are very difficult to predict. My head tells me we will see a Labour majority in the early 90s, with the Liberals not breaking far clear of 60 seats. My heart tells me we could see a shock slump in the Labour vote - which initial postal returns may support - leading to a crumbling majority, a la 1970, or effective campaigning from the Liberals to create a real electoral realignment, albeit an undesirable one. I think my head' s more reliable!

It's been a messy campaign, almost a dress rehearsal for one that will seem to matter much more in five years time. What is clear, however, is that it feels tricky to predict but that it could offer a very important platform for realignments which could happen in an uncertain political climate. I'll save time for more meaningful musing about what we can draw from the campaigns when it's all over. What has been most frustrating is missing my second electoral hit in twelve months by being out of the country. C-Span beckons tomorrow afternoon...


At 4:39 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"almost a dress rehearsal for one that will seem to matter much more in five years time"

That's what everyone said four years ago.

At 6:07 pm, Blogger Edward said...

Who? Where?


Post a Comment

<< Home